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Larry Kudlow Says Don’t Panic – Dan Mangru Market Commentary August 28, 2011

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Larry Kudlow says don’t panic


Posted: August 10, 2011
8:19 pm Eastern

© 2011 WND

Wow! I can’t believe this guy.

People are losing their retirements, their savings, their nest egg. Investors are now starting to realize that the U.S. is built on a deck of debt cards and they are starting to fall.

The United States has a current debt-to-GDP ratio of 100 percent just like the other Third World nations out there. It also has future liabilities in excess of $110 trillion (an amount that no other country can even fathom).

All the while, the U.S. dollar is losing strength and the cost of living and feeding a family continues to go up.

But Larry Kudlow says don’t worry.

See his article here:

While Kudlow points out that lower commodity prices should spur economic development, he misses out on several key factors that are needed to properly evaluate the market.

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First, this isn’t a short-term pullback, this is a market correction. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) went down to 6547.05 on March 9, 2009, we were supposed to retrace the low to roughly 50 percent. What this means is that our stock market should have faced some major resistance to move beyond the 9750 mark on the Dow. Instead by 2010 we had blown by it, and with the slight exception of the May 2010 flash crash, we never looked back. 

Make no mistake, speculation fueled the market. Case in point, look where we are now. When QE2 (Quantitative Easing 2) was implemented by the Fed last December, the Dow was hovering around 11,000. During April the Dow surged to 12,928. Everything seemed great.

Except it wasn’t.

With continual Federal Reserve (Fed) stimulus (low interest rates, and QE2), traders, black box traders in particular, were given cart-blanche to trade financial markets knowing that they would be flush with cheap Fed cash.

Since the cash was always there, traders didn’t care what the economic news was for the day. They were concerned with liquidity and how they could exploit liquidity to make a profit.

That’s why things such as a high debt to GDP ratio, poor housing numbers, and high deficit spending didn’t seem to register on Wall Street’s radar.

However, once the Fed pulled out their cash and ended QE2, traders started to run for the hills. They began to start dumping stocks. In fact, even sophisticated hedge fund managers such as Carl Icahn and George Soros proclaimed that they were disbanding their hedge funds, returning money to investors, and leaving the market at professional managers.

That should tell you something.

Between the top money guys leaving and the Fed pulling out cash, the fix was in. We were all fed the line that once we did the debt deal that financial markets would rally. And they did … for about an hour.

But that’s when reality hit.

Since then financial markets are starting to realize that the United States has no real end in sight to its flagrant spending ways, and astronomical long-term debt. Without Fed easy money to spur buying, investors are treating the U.S. economy for what it currently is … a sell.

Second, Kudlow points to rising corporate profits as being an indicator that the U.S. economy is still healthy. What Kudlow fails to recognize is that corporate profit guidance is being lowered for the second half of this year. Even Goldman Sachs lowered their guidance for the second half of this year.

Large corporations will see that margins are going down and that after enduring a major stock market correction, consumers are not running around the store waving their credit cards dying to spend. Consumers will not consume as much.

Savings rates are going up. The most recent data from the St. Louis Fed shows the U.S. personal savings rate is at 5.4 percent. Compare that with our April 2005 rate of 1 percent, and you can see that Americans are worried that the economy will fall and they will need their money.

That translates to economic slowdown. When individuals do not spend and start to save more, that slows down production and consumption, which in turn slows down the entire economy.

Third, Kudlow believes that there is a big overreaction going on to the problems in Europe. Keep in mind, Kudlow, along with fellow CNBCer Jim Cramer, thought Lehman Brothers was a good buy before it went bankrupt and wiped out investors.

The easiest way to understand the Europe problem is to think of economies of scale. Greece, which in relative terms is very small country, cost over $1 trillion to bail out.

One small country took all of the financial might and muscle of Europe’s top banks and governments to bail out.

Now think of Italy, the newest country on the brink. Italy’s debt crisis is 10 times the size of Greece. I’ll put it to you this way, the European Union cannot afford $10 trillion.

The entire GDP of the European Union is $16 trillion, so $10 trillion is too big to bail out. An additional problem with Italy is that a huge chunk of its debt is due within the next two years. So this isn’t a problem that can be shoved under the rug.

Combine this with a sluggish Euro and a European Union that is dealing with a global economic slowdown and the recipe is not good. With all of the weakness in Europe, the EU’s stronger countries (Germany and France) should start to see some of their strength erode as they are continually forced to bail out smaller players. By the EU charter, the EU guarantees all of the debt of its member nations. Hence, Germany and France will end up paying the bill for Greece, Italy, Spain, and all of the other countries who have overspent and are nearing bankruptcy.

Finally, Kudlow fails to point out several key ticking time bombs in the United States. First is the real estate market. With shadow inventories and foreclosures, home inventories should skyrocket to all-time high levels in the United States.

Second, student debt in America is at an all-time high. Fueled by government loans, universities have been charging students higher rates every year, regardless of what the stock market or the economy is doing. Current student debt in this country is estimated at $1 trillion. Just so you know, that was the amount of money that was needed to bail out our banks.

Third, municipal debt is a major issue. If cities and states start to go bankrupt, all hell could break loose. Remember, less than a year ago, California (the world’s 9th largest economy) could have gone under. The effects of a default of that size would cripple the domestic and global financial economy.

So Mr. Kudlow, in times like these, while panic may not be the right feeling, all is not well. Investors should be very concerned. They should be safeguarding their assets against a major stock market drop and planning for the future.

But then again, maybe that message isn’t one that the talking heads want to hear or give.

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Freedom Fest Panel – Alternative Investing – The Mangru Report on Fox Business September 24, 2010

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Watch extended coverage from Freedom Fest 2010 with Dan Mangru moderating a special panel on Alternative Investing.  While so many investors are confused as to what that actually is, for the purposes of this panel alternative investing is any type of investment outside of stocks, bonds, options and mutual funds.

The panel features David McAlvany of McAlvany Wealth Management, Van Simmons of David Hall Rare Coins, Jack T. Reed author of How to Protect Your Life Savings, and Terry Coxon of Passport IRA.  They will provide key insights on topics such as gold investing, the currencies most likely to beat the U.S. dollar and why the U.S. dollar might be good to hold in the short run, whether investors should pay down debt as opposed to making new investments, how to buy real estate during hyperinflation, and the importance of liquidity.

Bert Dohmen Freedom Fest 2010 Interview – The Mangru Report on Fox Business September 22, 2010

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After a long wait, it’s finally here online, Bert Dohmen’s exclusive interview with Dan Mangru from Freedom Fest 2010 in Las Vegas.  In this interview, Dohmen discusses the prospects of a V-shaped recovery or whether the United States is headed for what George Soros calls “Act II of the Crisis”.  He also shares his views on the financial reform bill, a Chinese bubble, and whether the U.S. can save China if it goes under.  Bert Dohmen is the founder of the Dohmen Capital Research Institute and the author of the award winning Wellington Letter.

Worried About Your Wealth? – READ THIS TODAY September 19, 2010

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The chart doesn’t lie.  Just look at the Dow and what it’s been doing this year.

First it goes up, then takes a big drop down, has a huge run up, then takes another dive, and so on and so on.  It seems as though the market has been more volatile than ever, leaving investors with very little direction.

I mean just when you think you’ve got the market figured out, it goes in the exact opposite direction.

For instance, many people are now fully aware that our economy is in bad shape.  Our national debt is approaching $14 trillion dollars, 25% of homes have more debt than what they are worth, there is at least $1 trillion of hidden losses in Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, and to boot, unemployment has been at around 10% for the better part of this year.

Yet with all of that bad news, the DOW has rallied from lows of 6500 just last year in March 2009, and has for some reason or another been atop of 10,000 for most of the last year even with all of the volatility.

So what is an investor to do?

One of the adages on Wall Street is that information that everyone knows is not worth knowing.

The reason behind that is because if everybody already knows something, then most likely, that information has already been factored into the price of a stock.  So when many people were trying to sell stocks and go short the market because of bad fundamental news (unemployment, national debt, etc.) and lost a lot of money, they didn’t understand that the market had already factored in that information into stock prices.

The problem that many people have is that they decide what direction they think that the market is going to go in and then find information and data that support that idea.  That’s how many brokers and so-called “experts” have led their clients astray.

There are certain key data that will tell you where the market is going (industrial production, job postings, etc.).  The key is to be able to look at that data without any preconceived notions.

That’s what we do at The Mangru Letter.  We look at the market for what it is and not for what we want it to be.  If the market is telling us to buy, we buy.  If it is telling us to sell, we sell. (CLICK HERE FOR A SPECIAL MANGRU LETTER OFFER)

By staying true to being unbiased, that’s how myself along with my associates have helped thousands of Americans to generate substantial gains while keeping them informed about life-changing economic and geopolitical developments.  Now, you too can have access to the same type of information that helped investors to avoid the big downturn in the stock market during 2008 and to participate in the dramatic increase in stock prices during 2009.

That’s why I’d like to invite you to join us here at The Mangru Letter – a service that will help you to grow the value of your assets during both up and down markets and that will enable you to protect your principal when others are incurring significant losses.

The Mangru Letter TML0001

In each and every edition of The Mangru Letter, I’ll provide you with crucial information on the key factors that are affecting the financial markets and that will enable you to properly position your investment portfolio at any point in time, whether you are just starting out or whether your are getting ready for retirement.

I’ll also provide you with specific investment recommendations for two model portfolios that are structured for both conservative and aggressive investors.

In addition, I’ll share insightful comments with you from proven money managers regarding their thoughts and analysis of the economy and the direction of stock and commodity prices. (TO ACCESS THE MANGRU LETTER CLICK HERE NOW)

The difference between this letter and many others you will see out there is that we make no outrageous promises.

You won’t turn $30 into $300,000 in just one year.  There are no 10,000 % returns.

What we have to offer is honest, solid, unbiased market direction.  We use time-tested proven methodologies that preserve wealth and grow it for the long term.  That’s what we do, and that’s what we’re good at.

So while many newsletters have decided to charge anywhere from $500 to even $2000 per year for “get rich quick” type of advice, we want to make our service available to everyone from the seasoned trader to the mom and pop investor.

That’s why we’ve reduced the price of our service to $99.99 per year, which comes out to 28 cents a day, a small price to pay to potentially save thousands in losses and have the ability to start generating substantial and consistent market returns.

To join our service, just CLICK HERE NOW and add The Mangru Letter to your cart through our secure checkout.

I appreciate you taking the time to read this letter and wish you life, liberty, and pursuit of prosperity.

To Your Success,


Dan Mangru

P.S. – Subscribers to The Mangru Letter are also automatic member of The Mangru Report Insider’s Club which gives you first access to all things Mangru including exclusive interview content with leading business and financial figures such as Steve Forbes, Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, and many more.  Sign Up for The Mangru Letter Today by CLICKING HERE NOW.

P.P.S. Thank you for considering becoming a member of The Mangru Letter. I look forward to a long and prosperous relationship.  To complete your membership process please click the subscribe button below.

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Buy and Hold Still Holds – John Browne Commentary September 5, 2010

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Buy and Hold Still Holds
By:John Browne
Thursday, September 2, 2010

As Americans have justifiably lost faith in the stock market, the classic buy-and-hold investment strategy has fallen from favor. The problem is that retail investors are wrongly equating the performance of stocks as a class with the trajectory of American stocks in particular. Fortunately, buy-and-hold still works in many parts of the world. If you are an American, just don’t try it at home.

The US market is in sorry shape. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are presently no higher than they were 12 years ago. If you factor in 12 years worth of inflation, then these results are abysmal. Although American stocks have gone nowhere, extreme economic stress has nevertheless created huge swings of volatility. During the past decade, US stocks have surged 50%, plunged by similar amounts, and then risen and fallen again.

To be a successful player in such a volatile, directionless market requires the kind of knowledge and vigilance that only the best financial professionals possess. The key to trading is the flexibility to make very short-term movements in and out of stocks and sectors, combined with rigorous sell discipline. Oftentimes it means placing a short-term bet on a company and sector even if one believes the move makes no long-term sense. As these capacities are not common among retail investors, who can blame them for heading to the exits?

While attention is often showered on the traders who find success with short-term momentum plays, less attention is paid to fundamental economic growth, which is, after all, the main reason that rank-and-file investors profit from the market. A growing economy lifts all boats, and brings buy-and-hold investors along for the ride.

In recent times, the long-term trend of a massive shift in growth from American and European developed economies to emerging economies, especially to China, has benefitted greatly the buy-and-hold strategies of investors following that mega-trend. I believe that this trend will likely continue over the long-term. I also believe that emerging-market stocks will not be as vulnerable to the next downturn in US stocks as they were in 2008.

Recent conclusions from a number of high-profile research organizations support this forecast. According to IMF estimates, developing economies’ debt will average about 40 percent of their gross domestic product this year, compared with 107 percent in advanced economies. The IMF believes that this comparatively lower debt burden will help the developing economies grow 6.4 percent as a group in 2011, greatly surpassing the 2.4 percent expansion expected in the developed world.

According to Morgan Stanley, emerging-market companies are finding better opportunities to reinvest their earnings, producing a return on equity of 14.8 percent, compared with 10.2 percent in the developed world. *

However, despite this tremendous growth and profitability, shares in the emerging markets remain at attractive valuations relative to the mature economies. In fact, data compiled by Bloomberg shows that for the past decade, except for the 10-month period ending in May 2008 (right before the crisis began), emerging-market shares consistently traded at lower earnings multiples than developed markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has traded at an average discount of about 30 percent to the MSCI World Index during the past 10 years, the data show.  *

Buy-and-hold remains a viable strategy for foreign stock investing at current valuations. The popular alternative, keeping savings in US bank accounts and bonds, is an increasingly risky strategy, in my opinion. While a natural recession would benefit savers and bondholders, as decreasing prices make a penny saved into a penny earned, the US government is determined to continue intervening in the market.

Washington, whether it is controlled by Democrats or Republicans, is unlikely to ever suffer the political consequences of stepping back in the face of recession. So, even while some form of austerity is sorely needed, it is extremely unlikely to be enacted.

Instead, more useless economic stimulus is likely to materialize. While huge infusions of government spending will create the short-term illusion of recovery, the result most likely will be greatly increased taxes, massive debt increases, a further lurch from private-sector wealth creation toward public consumption – and, finally, debasement of the US dollar.

So, retail investors sitting in US bonds and bank accounts will ultimately pay a steep price through inflation. The answer, it seems, is not to abandon stocks, but rather US stocks. Not to abandon buy-and-hold, but to adopt buy-and-hold-elsewhere. And if you were never a stock buyer, there’s always the security of physical precious metals.

For the full text of the article CLICK HERE NOW.

Watch Steve Forbes, Peter Schiff, & More This Saturday And Sunday On Our Special Freedom Fest 2010 Episode July 26, 2010

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The wait is over.  This weekend, The Mangru Report will be airing its highly anticipated Freedom Fest 2010 episode.

You’ll be able to watch Dan Mangru’s exclusive one-on-one interviews with Steve Forbes, Chairman and CEO of Forbes Inc., and Peter Schiff, President of Euro-Pacific Capital and current U.S. Senate Candidate from Connecticut.

We will also feature expert panel commentary from:

Adrian Day, Adrian Day Asset Management
Jack Dzierwa, U.S. Global Investors
Lou Petrossi, Wealth Research Institute
Frank Trotter, Everbank

Carl Domino One-On-One with Dan Mangru – The Mangru Report – Episode 10 July 15, 2010

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From episode 10 of The Mangru Report, watch Palm Beach Investment Manager and Candidate for Florida Senate Carl Domino for District 25 discuss a second stimulus after President Barack Obama’s Economic Advisor Larry Summers suggested publicly that a new infusion of spending was necessary to the economy.

Domino also discusses in this interview with Dan Mangru topics such as retirement investing, inflation, stocks, bonds, and his thoughts on U.S. tax dollars being spent on illegals.  Carl Domino’s firm Carl Domino Inc. currently has over $2 billion in assets after starting with just over $3 million of assets under management during its initial formation.  Carl Domino’s opponent in the Republican Florida Senate Primary is Ellyn Bogdanoff.

Casey Research CEO Olivier Garret One-On-One with Dan Mangru – The Mangru Report – Episode 11 July 14, 2010

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As the financial reform bill moves closer to reality, Casey Research CEO Olivier Garret warned the viewers of The Mangru Report how the big banks will use the financial reform bill to consolidate their power.  Although though the financial reform bill gets derivatives traded on an exchange, Garret warns that there are too many loopholes in the bill and it just adds to government bureaucracy.  Garret also shares with Dan Mangru his thoughts on E.U. austerity, and the gold trade.

Jim Rogers and Bert Dohmen to Appear on The Mangru Report TONIGHT June 26, 2010

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Be sure to tune in to The Mangru Report tonight at 5:30 p.m. as we are joined by Jim Rogers (Author of A Gift to My Children & Founder of Rogers Holdings) and Bert Dohmen (Author of The Wellington Letter and Founder of Dohmen Capital Research Institute)  You can catch Bert Dohmen this July 8-11 at Freedom Fest in Las Vegas.

Martin Weiss to Launch Weiss Money Network TV Show Tomorrow at 7pm June 16, 2010

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We at The Mangru Report would like to pass along a word of congratulations to Dr. Martin Weiss, one of our show’s guests and the Founder of Weiss Ratings, on his upcoming launch of his series of new internet television programs called the Weiss Money Network.

You can view the launch of the Weiss Money Network tomorrow Thursday June 17, 2010 at 7 p.m. EST.

On that program, Dr. Weiss will be joined by Mike Larson, Larry Edelson, Nilus Mattive, Ron Rowland, and Monty Agarwal in a lively discussion that will cover some of the most important investment topics of the day.

We wish Dr. Weiss great success and encourage our viewers to watch his program.  You can view his website by CLICKING HERE NOW.