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Regulation Nation – Outsourcing in America – The Mangru Report Episode 21 October 26, 2010

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As election season is in full gear, and politicians ramp up the political rhetoric on how outsourcing has killed jobs in America, The Mangru Report Panel of experts takes a hard look at whether outsourcing is a negative or a positive thing for America.

The Mangru Report Panel of Experts composed of Anthony Pulieri (Joseph Glenn Commodities), John Browne (Euro Pacific Capital), and Jim Knight (The Knight Group) discuss the differences in wages in foreign countries, the influence of unions, unfair government subsidies from foreign nations, the difference in technical skills between the U.S. workforce and countries like China & India, backwards tax incentives that keep U.S. jobs overseas for fear of high U.S. taxation, the influence of cheaper goods and it’s effect on the U.S. standard of living, and why companies are moving more of their operations overseas.

This segment was sponsored by First Hour Trading, you can download their FREE Report, “How to make enough money in the first 59 minutes of the market” by CLICKING HERE NOW.

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Taxation By Representation on Sugary Drinks Ban for New York City – The Mangru Report October 19, 2010

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After Congress failed to pass a 10 cent tax on sugary drinks such as soda, New York City united behind Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Gov. David Patterson is now trying to implement a sugary drink ban in New York City for all food stamp recipients. Patterson and Bloomberg contend that all of the public spending on healthcare and the links to diabetes and other diseases justifies the government ban.

Opponents of the measure say that this is just another nanny-state solution by New York, and that this is another case of class warfare, with the less fortunate being targeted.

Watch The Mangru Report Panel of Experts composed of John Browne (Euro-Pacific Capital), Paschal Liguori (Premier Estate Properties), and Florida House of Representatives Majority Leader Adam Hasner debate both sides of the issue and look at the real costs at hand.

Commodity Corner – Brazil’s Big Oil Bet – The Mangru Report on Fox Business – Episode 20 October 10, 2010

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While most people in America have been focusing on an upcoming General Motors (GM) IPO that was supposed to be some $70 billion dollars, it seems that Brazil has beat us to the punch. Recently, state-run Brazilian oil giant Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) raised some $70-75 billion in a secondary stock offering that was completed late September to finance the company’s growth and expansion, in particular new offshore deposits of oil found off the coast of Brazil.

Watch Dan Mangru and the Mangru Report Panel of Experts composed of John Browne (Euro-Pacific Capital), Anthony Pulieri (United Bullion Group), and Michael Solomon (Author, Where Did My America Go?) discuss whether the $75 billion was a good bet on Petrobras, whether the incoming Brazilian government will take Petrobras in a more socialist direction, and how the U.S. is invested in offshore oil in Brazil but not in America.

 

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War On Your Dollar – Bernanke’s September Surprise – The Mangru Report on Fox Business – Episode 20 October 7, 2010

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently announced that the recovery was not as strong as originally thought, the U.S. did not have enough inflation, and that the Fed would increase it’s debt purchases & inject more money into the system.

Watch Dan Mangru, John Browne (Euro-Pacific Capital), Anthony Pulieri (United Bullion Group), and Michael Solomon (Author, Where Did My America Go?) discuss how the dollar is being devalued, how Bernanke has created the perfect storm for gold, why China is not buying U.S. debt, and whether there is too much hype and excitement in the gold market.

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A Candid Appraisal of the Recovery – John Browne Commentary October 1, 2010

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A Candid Appraisal of the Recovery

By John Browne

Over the last two weeks, seemingly good economic news offered some shreds of optimism to a stock market that was desperate for a pick-me-up.

The week before last, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the US recession had ended back in June 2009. At the beginning of last week, news came in that month-on-month retail sales had risen by 0.4 percent. Combined with successful government debt auctions in the eurozone, increasing expectations that Republicans will take back the House (thereby blunting the leftward drift of Washington), and hopes that a new round of quantitative easing will pump up growth, mainstream analysts are developing a feeling of near-euphoria.

Although it hard to begrudge the punch drunk for grasping at a little hope, investing is a dispassionate endeavor that calls for close and realistic analysis. In that spirit, let’s dig deeper into the recent ‘good news.’

First, the single month’s rise in retail sales was a blip on what has been a long-term downtrend. Furthermore, retail sales in August typically get a large boost from seasonal ‘back to school’ spending. This year, retail sales were boosted further by temporary tax incentives and vendor discounts.

Second, the successful auction of debt from worrisome eurozone countries, like Ireland, only served to further camouflage the ongoing risk of sovereign default by these states. None of them have committed to a comprehensive program of austerity and market liberalization – Ireland maintains a ‘too big to fail’ doctrine while Greece is on the verge of riots from its so-far modest efforts at privatization. None of the PIIGS would have had successful bond sales if Germany hadn’t been pressured into becoming a ‘sovereign of last resort’ for the whole currency area.

Apart from health of the weakest nations, a more important issue is understanding how sovereign debt is analyzed by investors in the first place. Those who consider buying government debt have for many years relied on backward-looking measurements such as debt-to-GDP to analyze the investment quality.

But that’s only half the picture, and oftentimes it’s even less than that. It does not include off-balance sheet items such as unfunded pensions, social security payments, or health obligations. For the US, I estimate this total debt amounts to some $134 trillion – nearly ten times the ‘official’ figure.

On a deeper level, using the public debt-to-GDP ratio to assess sovereign solvency implies that governments have access to the entire annual production of their economies. In reality, they have access only to that portion which is taxable. As taxes increase, there are natural limits imposed by increasing inefficiency and avoidance behaviors. Therefore, ‘net GDP,’ the portion available to the government for debt service, is significantly smaller than the gross GDP of the nation.

With real government debts, including off-balance sheet items, far larger than officially recognized and net GDPs far smaller that top-line GDP, the solvency of many sovereigns should be considered dubious at best.

For example, the debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States is currently 65 percent, which puts the country towards the solvent end of the debt spectrum among developed Western nations. However, the real debt-to-net GDP ratio is a staggering 358 percent, making the US the most insolvent nation in the group, behind even Greece!

In the interest of brevity, I will only touch on the fact that the above number is actually still an underestimate. It does not account for the portion of gross GDP claimed by state and municipal governments to service their debts. After all, all levels of government tax the same base. So, the effective portion of GDP available to the US federal government is even smaller still.

The third problem with the late round of ‘good news’ is that while a GOP sweep of House races looks likely, it is unlikely to make a large impact on policy. It is doubtful that the small number of freshman GOP Representatives will be able to win over their more mature, big government-minded colleagues. Any pending GOP ‘small government’ revolution will be heavy on talk and short on accomplishments.

It should come as no surprise that the Republicans’ “Pledge to America” lacked specific commitments for cost-cutting. Republicans are terrified of becoming the party of austerity, and the next Republican President will want to avoid being seen as ‘Hoover 2.0’. Therefore, any structural changes will come slowly – and perhaps too late.

Finally, whatever actions the Fed takes in the name of further stimulus will have the same unintended consequences as all previous stimulus efforts. Long-term sustainability will be sacrificed in favor of a short-term boom. Since World War II, the underlying strength of the US economy has allowed the central bank to get away with this strategy, as the economy simply outgrew the inefficiencies caused by monetary manipulation. But what happens when we are in a period of secular decline?

So we see that Wall Street is again playing the part of Pangloss. Unfortunately, their purported inklings of a renewed rally in the US markets do not stand up to candid appraisal.

John Browne is the Senior Market Strategist for Euro-Pacific Capital and a featured panelist on The Mangru Report on Fox Business.  To view his previous commentaries please click here.

Another Stimulus – The Mangru Report – Episode 14 August 25, 2010

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Just when you think you’ve seen one stimulus too much… the White House and their crew of cronies are now calling for even more government spending in the form of a new stimulus.  Watch as The Mangru Report Panel of Experts led by John Browne of Euro-Pacific Capital, Anthony Pulieri of United Bullion Group, Alan Stone of Wall St. Research, and Jim Whelan of The James R. Whelan Agency.

This segment was sponsored by First Hour Trading you can download their FREE report “How to make enough money in the first 59 minutes of trading…” at www.firsthourtradingtv.com

The GM Payback – Regulation Nation – Episode 14 – The Mangru Report August 16, 2010

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As President Obama continues to tour Detroit and tout the successes of government ownership of GM and Chrysler, the Mangru Report panel of experts explores whether the U.S. taxpayer will ever get their money back, and how that could be done.

Dan Mangru and Episode 14’s panel, which consists of John Browne (Euro-Pacific Capital), Anthony Pulieri (United Bullion Group), Alan Stone (Wall Street Research), and Jim Whelan (The James. R. Whelan Agency) discuss the state of the current automotive industry, GM sales, and GM’s plan for the largest IPO in U.S. history that is supposed to pay back the government.  This is segment is sponsored by Breitling Oil & Gas you can find them on the web at http://www.breitlingoil.com

Bonus Coverage from Today’s Episode – Taxation By Representation August 8, 2010

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Sometimes, there’s just not enough time to bring you all of the engaging panel discussion from the set of The Mangru Report.  So that’s why we are bringing you this bonus coverage of Episode 13 of The Mangru Report, which is sponsored by First Hour Trading, you can download their free report “How to make enough money in the first 59 minutes of trading…” by visiting www.firsthourtradingtv.com.

During this panel hear Anthony Pulieri (United Bullion Group), John Browne (Euro-Pacific Capital), and Jim Whelan (The James R. Whelan Agency) discuss the status of the first Obama-led stimulus and the prospects of a second stimulus on the economy.  Also hear Jim Whelan raise the issue of Barack Obama’s birth certificate.

Regulation Nation – Episode 11 – The Mangru Report July 15, 2010

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Does it ever seem to you that the government’s answer to every problem is more regulation.  Well then my friend, you must live in a Regulation Nation.  In the Regulation Nation segment from Episode 11, the Mangru Report Panel of Experts composed of Armand Grossman (Florida Atlantic University), Lexye Aversa (Professional Touch International), Anthony Pulieri (United Bullion Group), and John Browne (Euro-Pacific Capital) discuss the prevalence of new IPOs in the stock market (Tesla Motors, Primerica, Vera Bradley, Toys R Us)  in spite of the financial reform bill. While some look at it as a positive sign for the market, other experts say it might be companies trying to cash out before the next crash comes.  Find out this and more on Episode 11’s Regulation Nation segment which was brought to you by The James R. Whelan Agency, “The Most Powerful Name in Advertising”.

Episode Clips – The Mangru Report Episodes 8-11 July 12, 2010

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We’ve received a couple of emails asking about when the clips from recent episodes will be posted online. We are happy to let everyone know that all clips from Episodes 8-11 are now up on our YouTube page. In the meantime, we will start posting the best clips throughout the week here on The Mangru Report website.

Episode 11 – Global Gains

Watch The Mangru Report Panel of Experts Discuss the Economic Impact of The World Cup

Episode 11 – “More Of” or “Moron”

Episode 11 – The Mangru Moment – On Sacrifice