Florida Primary News: Mitt Romney’s Only Hope to Be President – The Papa Bear Strategy January 27, 2012Posted by Admin in Dan Mangru, Market Commentary.
Tags: dan mangru, Debate, florida, Gingrich, GOP, Mitt Romney, primary, Romney, santorum
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Mitt Romney’s Only Hope to Be President – The Papa Bear Strategy
By Dan Mangru
Another debate is in the can. As voters watched last night’s GOP Presidential debate in Jacksonville, they saw a different kind of Mitt Romney. They saw a Mitt Romney on the attack, and a candidate who would not back down. But is that enough?
Think of Mitt Romney. Tell me what comes to mind.
For some, an image of a successful executive comes to mind. Mitt Romney has helped numerous companies turn around including Staples, Brookstone, Domino’s Pizza, Sports Authority, and the 2002 Winter Olympics. Romney also led an effective conservative government in the most liberal state in America, Massachusetts.
For others, a political flip-flopper comes into view. Rudy Giuliani recently said on MSNBC that he ran against Romney and didn’t know what he truly believes. To date, Romney has changed views on abortion, health care, labor, and gay marriage amongst other issues.
But here’s one image that probably won’t come into your mind that should: Papa Bear.
Behind the exterior of the cold, hard, shiny CEO, lies a man who loves being with his kids and grandkids. He loves being out in nature, and horsing around with the little ones like any good granddad would.
Just look at Mitt’s Christmas card. He’s got the grandkids on his arm, just enjoying being outdoors and spending time with his family. Wouldn’t you want that guy to be your granddad, your ‘Papa Bear’?
When Sears introduced their advertising slogan, “Come see the softer side of Sears”, their sales shot up 30 percent. That’s nothing to sneeze at.
Do you think Mitt Romney could use a 30 percent boost in the polls?
Absolutely. Mitt Romney has been largely aloof in an overexposed GOP primary. He has even shied away from interviews with conservatives like Sean Hannity and Bill O’Reilly of Fox News.
The only Romney that we know is that guy in the suit at the debates, making the speeches, collecting the campaign contribution from wealthy donors.
But there is more to that than what meets the eye. Mitt Romney has kept his private life private and his public life public. Now is the time for him to let America into his private life. Here is a man who loves his wife, has a beautiful family, and who seems to be an all-around great guy.
Romney’s campaign has always said that Republican voters have been dating candidates like Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich but in the end they will marry Romney. If Romney wants to be the candidate conservatives marry, they need to see him as a real person and not someone who is cold, hard, shiny, and plastic.
When George W. Bush was elected president, people felt like he was a guy you could go bowling with and have a beer. When Barack Obama was elected president, people felt that he was a family man who was in tune with popular culture. Through popular culture, Americans began to relate to Barack Obama.
Part of the appeal of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is that he’s made mistakes, and has asked for forgiveness. We’ve all made mistakes and can identify with that. Part of the Mitt Romney image is that he’s figuratively never made any mistakes or done anything that a working class Floridian or American can identify with, for the most part.
America has not related to Mitt Romney, at least not yet. Still some 60-75 percent of voters (depending on which poll you read) believe that another candidate not named Mitt Romney is best to lead this nation. After five years of campaigning, that should speak volumes.
During his tenure as Massachusetts governor, Romney turned around a state that was heavily in debt so much that by the end of his term as governor, he had amassed a rainy day fund of over $2billion. That’s the record that Romney brings to the table.
Voters know that this election counts. President Obama has driven America off the cliff with over $15 trillion in debt. The economy is showing signs of a double dip recession. Unemployment still remains around 9 percent (although the last figures came in at 8.6 percent for November).
There is a lot on the line for this election, and after 19 debates the GOP still hasn’t decided who their flag bearer will be.
Mitt still has a chance. As quick as they rise is as fast as they fall. Mitt can make a major move literally overnight with just one simple strategy: Papa Bear. Give us a glimpse into Mitt Romney the man, the husband, the granddad, the human being, and America just might give you a glimpse into the Oval Office.
Larry Kudlow Says Don’t Panic – Dan Mangru Market Commentary August 28, 2011Posted by Admin in Dan Mangru, Market Commentary.
Tags: business, cnbc, crash, crisis, dow, economy, Fox, gold, investing, larry kudlow, news, recession, silver
Larry Kudlow says don’t panic
Posted: August 10, 2011
8:19 pm Eastern
© 2011 WND
The United States has a current debt-to-GDP ratio of 100 percent just like the other Third World nations out there. It also has future liabilities in excess of $110 trillion (an amount that no other country can even fathom).
All the while, the U.S. dollar is losing strength and the cost of living and feeding a family continues to go up.
But Larry Kudlow says don’t worry.
While Kudlow points out that lower commodity prices should spur economic development, he misses out on several key factors that are needed to properly evaluate the market.
First, this isn’t a short-term pullback, this is a market correction. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) went down to 6547.05 on March 9, 2009, we were supposed to retrace the low to roughly 50 percent. What this means is that our stock market should have faced some major resistance to move beyond the 9750 mark on the Dow. Instead by 2010 we had blown by it, and with the slight exception of the May 2010 flash crash, we never looked back.
Make no mistake, speculation fueled the market. Case in point, look where we are now. When QE2 (Quantitative Easing 2) was implemented by the Fed last December, the Dow was hovering around 11,000. During April the Dow surged to 12,928. Everything seemed great.
Except it wasn’t.
With continual Federal Reserve (Fed) stimulus (low interest rates, and QE2), traders, black box traders in particular, were given cart-blanche to trade financial markets knowing that they would be flush with cheap Fed cash.
Since the cash was always there, traders didn’t care what the economic news was for the day. They were concerned with liquidity and how they could exploit liquidity to make a profit.
That’s why things such as a high debt to GDP ratio, poor housing numbers, and high deficit spending didn’t seem to register on Wall Street’s radar.
However, once the Fed pulled out their cash and ended QE2, traders started to run for the hills. They began to start dumping stocks. In fact, even sophisticated hedge fund managers such as Carl Icahn and George Soros proclaimed that they were disbanding their hedge funds, returning money to investors, and leaving the market at professional managers.
That should tell you something.
Between the top money guys leaving and the Fed pulling out cash, the fix was in. We were all fed the line that once we did the debt deal that financial markets would rally. And they did … for about an hour.
But that’s when reality hit.
Since then financial markets are starting to realize that the United States has no real end in sight to its flagrant spending ways, and astronomical long-term debt. Without Fed easy money to spur buying, investors are treating the U.S. economy for what it currently is … a sell.
Second, Kudlow points to rising corporate profits as being an indicator that the U.S. economy is still healthy. What Kudlow fails to recognize is that corporate profit guidance is being lowered for the second half of this year. Even Goldman Sachs lowered their guidance for the second half of this year.
Large corporations will see that margins are going down and that after enduring a major stock market correction, consumers are not running around the store waving their credit cards dying to spend. Consumers will not consume as much.
Savings rates are going up. The most recent data from the St. Louis Fed shows the U.S. personal savings rate is at 5.4 percent. Compare that with our April 2005 rate of 1 percent, and you can see that Americans are worried that the economy will fall and they will need their money.
That translates to economic slowdown. When individuals do not spend and start to save more, that slows down production and consumption, which in turn slows down the entire economy.
Third, Kudlow believes that there is a big overreaction going on to the problems in Europe. Keep in mind, Kudlow, along with fellow CNBCer Jim Cramer, thought Lehman Brothers was a good buy before it went bankrupt and wiped out investors.
The easiest way to understand the Europe problem is to think of economies of scale. Greece, which in relative terms is very small country, cost over $1 trillion to bail out.
One small country took all of the financial might and muscle of Europe’s top banks and governments to bail out.
Now think of Italy, the newest country on the brink. Italy’s debt crisis is 10 times the size of Greece. I’ll put it to you this way, the European Union cannot afford $10 trillion.
The entire GDP of the European Union is $16 trillion, so $10 trillion is too big to bail out. An additional problem with Italy is that a huge chunk of its debt is due within the next two years. So this isn’t a problem that can be shoved under the rug.
Combine this with a sluggish Euro and a European Union that is dealing with a global economic slowdown and the recipe is not good. With all of the weakness in Europe, the EU’s stronger countries (Germany and France) should start to see some of their strength erode as they are continually forced to bail out smaller players. By the EU charter, the EU guarantees all of the debt of its member nations. Hence, Germany and France will end up paying the bill for Greece, Italy, Spain, and all of the other countries who have overspent and are nearing bankruptcy.
Finally, Kudlow fails to point out several key ticking time bombs in the United States. First is the real estate market. With shadow inventories and foreclosures, home inventories should skyrocket to all-time high levels in the United States.
Second, student debt in America is at an all-time high. Fueled by government loans, universities have been charging students higher rates every year, regardless of what the stock market or the economy is doing. Current student debt in this country is estimated at $1 trillion. Just so you know, that was the amount of money that was needed to bail out our banks.
Third, municipal debt is a major issue. If cities and states start to go bankrupt, all hell could break loose. Remember, less than a year ago, California (the world’s 9th largest economy) could have gone under. The effects of a default of that size would cripple the domestic and global financial economy.
So Mr. Kudlow, in times like these, while panic may not be the right feeling, all is not well. Investors should be very concerned. They should be safeguarding their assets against a major stock market drop and planning for the future.
But then again, maybe that message isn’t one that the talking heads want to hear or give.
A Billion Here And a Billion There! January 10, 2011Posted by Admin in Dan Mangru.
Tags: billions, boehner, capitol hill, Congress, dc, republicans, spending, tax cut, trillions, Washington
Originally Published December 17, 2010
By Dan Mangru
One key premise of negotiation is to frame the deal within the context that everyone wins. Everyone wants to feel that they got what they wanted. Nobody wants to be a loser.
Well, today in Washington, D.C., there are no losers, just politicians.
You see, Republicans wanted to extend the 2001/2003 tax cuts for all Americans. They believe that lower taxes are key to running an economically viable nation.
That’s not altogether a bad idea.
Democrats feel that increased spending and lower/middle class tax rebates are the way to get our struggling economy back on track.
(Column continues below)
That’s debatable, but there are some good uses for government spending. The sad thing is that those cases are few and far between.
For instance, cyber security and space exploration are examples of good government spending. Having our national databases hacked by the Chinese and relying on the Russians or the Chinese for a ride up to the space station … not such good ideas.
But I digress. I mean why have things like cyber security and a space program (which is being phased out by the Obama administration) when you have so many other important things to spend on in a new stimulus … err, I mean…Tax Cut Bill.
You see, like Rahm Emanuel says, you never should let a good crisis go to waste. Here America was in crisis facing a massive tax hike in the middle of a recession. Congress literally had to act now as the holidays were approaching and the tax hikes ready to rear their ugly head come January 1.
This was an opportunity. Sure, Congress could have just passed an extension of the tax cuts. But that would have been too easy.
Congress also could have followed the law and passed a dollar in spending cuts for every dollar in tax cuts per the Reagan-era PAYGO law. But that would have been too responsible.
So what did our friends in Congress decide to do? They decided to pass a win-win deal for Democrats and Republicans.
The Republicans wanted an extension of the tax cuts no matter what. The Democrats were happy to give that to them at a price.
In the end, an extension of some tax cuts ended up being a $990 billion debacle.
Yep, that’s right, $990 billion (although I presume that it was strategically valued at $990 billion so that it wouldn’t be over the magic $1 trillion mark, but then again has there ever been a government budget figure that wasn’t underestimated?). This bill is even larger than the $787 billion Obama porkulus bill.
So what’s exactly in this $990 billion bill? Necessary items for the growth of our nation, of course.
Some of the goodies in our beloved tax cut bill are the railroad track maintenance credit, a 7-year recovery period for NASCAR raceways, accelerated depreciation for business property on an Indian reservation, tax credits for mine rescue training, tax incentives for investment in the District of Columbia, and special tax breaks and subsidies for the rum industry.
What’s really been ailing our economy is that rum prices are just too high. Why should we pay $20 for a bottle of Capitan Morgan? That’s ridiculous.
Well, good thing that the new tax cut bill addressed that with a $235 million subsidy for rum makers in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Whew! Crisis averted.
Yet, our friends in Congress didn’t stop there.
It turns out that the ethanol lobby didn’t feel like they were getting their fair share, so they got $6 billion.
Technology companies such as Microsoft and Boeing wanted in on the action, so they got $6 billion too.
All in all about $55 billion of goodies handed out to friends. Ah, the change that we can believe in. Apparently, the only thing that really changes is which party to blame this time.
It gets even worse. Had Congress just passed the income tax cuts ($359 billion), Alternative Minimum Tax Indexing ($140 billion) and the Estate Tax Changes ($68 billion), the total cost of the bill would have been $568 billion as opposed to $990 billion.
So how does the bill almost double in size?
Well, throw in about $56 billion in unemployment payments for people who have been out of work for up to 99 weeks, add in $120 billion of a payroll tax holiday, $21 billion of refundable tax credits, with a $146 billion dash of business expensing writeoffs, and a sprinkle of $80 billion so-called business tax extenders (i.e. major government subsidies for green technology), and you can start to see how the bill becomes so big.
Now for the $64,000 question: how do we pay for it?
Well some of you might suggest that we cut existing spending to pay for new spending.
While that might seem logical, you must remember this is Washington, D.C., that we’re dealing with.
Why do things like cut spending, and balance the budget, and pay down the national debt, when we can crank up the old printing press?
You guessed it, Obama is just going to put in a call to his buddy at the Federal Reserve Mr. Bernanke, and tell him to oil up the machines because he needs a fresh trillion dollars printed up ASAP.
Don’t you just wish that you could fire up your HP printer at home and just start printing money? When the power bill comes every month, don’t worry about it. Just make sure that there is ink and paper in the printer and you’ll be just fine.
While that seems preposterous to you and me, this is the real power that our president has, and he’s teaming up with Congress to put our country further in debt.
Keep in mind, because Obama “compromised” by extending the Bush tax cuts, he’s going to expect the Republicans to “compromise” by extending the debt ceiling.
Currently, the U.S. is only legally authorized to have $14.3 trillion of debt. However, that can be changed by an act of Congress. And when President Obama reminds the Republicans that their tax cut bill was the trillion dollars that put them over the edge, the Republicans will cave in to his demands to allow the nation to go trillions more in debt.
How high can the ceiling go?
It just depends how high Obama is willing to ask. Maybe he’ll go for just another trillion. If he’s daring maybe he can push the debt ceiling to $17 trillion maybe, even $19 trillion. After all, he is the Compromiser-in-Chief.
So in the end every political party got what they wanted, a win-win deal. Republicans got tax cuts and Democrats got more spending.
Yes America, only in Washington, D.C., can we make a deal that not only increases spending but decreases tax revenue. Simply put, we have to pay for more with less.
Hopefully, when the new class of representatives and senators comes into office next year, we will have a change for the better. Maybe the threat of the Tea Party can keep newly elected politicians honest.
For our sake, I hope so.
A Tribute To Our Veterans… By Dan Mangru November 11, 2010Posted by Admin in Dan Mangru.
Tags: day, freedom, honor, independence, justice, liberty, military, service, troops, veterans
For some today is just another federal holiday. It’s a day where you don’t get your mail and your local bank is closed for business. Maybe you might have off from work.
But for a day that comes around every year comes a meaning that is truly different and unique every single time.
Many tributes to our brave men and women who serve and have served in the armed forces will focus on their courage, dedication, and service to America and the causes of freedom, justice, and liberty… and rightfully so.
For over 230 years brave soldiers have entered the field of combat fighting for causes that they believed to be much higher than themselves: God, country, family, freedom, justice, & each other.
It is the idea that the next day will be a better day than the last and the next generation will be better than ours that motivates our service men and women to do everything in their power to preserve the freedom that so many gave their lives for. It is the idea that there is something uniquely brilliant about America that like a Phoenix she can rise from the ashes and become a shining beacon of hope and freedom.
Yet for so many of us it is easy to allow the sacrifices of our military to be taken in vain.
Many times we seek to blame others for our shortcomings. Many times we believe that we are entitled to things which we have not earned. Many times we take the very freedom that we live in for granted.
The easiest way to take freedom for granted is to waste the myriad of opportunities that we have in America. Our land is one of the few in the world where you can rise to any level of success regardless of where you were born, the color of your skin, or what socioeconomic background you have. That is so easy to forget in a land where it has always been that way for so many of us.
While the people of America are not perfect, we must all remember that the ideals and values of America are, and it is those perfect values that we try and implement into our lives and our country everyday.
So the best tribute we can give to our troops and those who serve us is to do something. Make your life worthwhile. Raise your children to have values and to respect America. Give back to your community.
It is not lost that these are tough times that we live in. Many are out of work and struggling to make ends meet.
While this environment has been tough for many Americans, let us not forget that we have the freedom of opportunity to rise above our current circumstances.
If you don’t have a job you can freely seek one in any field and any company you’d like. If there’s not a job match for you amongst existing companies, then make your own company and employ yourself.
America has always been a land of innovators, creators, and visionaries. It is that heritage that has always kept us on the cutting edge of technology and has propelled us to be the greatest nation on God’s good green earth.
The men and women who fight for us everyday want to know that we are also fighting. They want to know that we plan on doing something special with our lives. They want to know that by preserving the freedom of America, that our generations will be able to achieve the feats both great and small to advance the monumental odyssey that is progress.
They want to know that there is an American out there who will find a cure for infectious diseases. They want to know that there is an American out there who will create technology to help people stay in touch. They want to know that there is an American out there who makes an honest living, and values family.
We can all pay tribute to those put their lives on the line for us in our own special way, but no matter how we do it, let us show it with the quality of our lives and with our actions. Let us always make good use of the freedoms and opportunities that we enjoy as Americans. We must show them America and it’s principles are worth fighting for, worth dying for, because we all fighting home and broad for the United States of America, the land of the free and the home of the brave. And don’t you ever forget it.
God Bless America,
United States Coast Guard Auxiliary
Flotilla 51, District 7
Election Wrap Up – Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, LTC(R) Allen West, Peter Schiff & More November 4, 2010Posted by Admin in Dan Mangru, Interviews.
Tags: 2010, allen west, carl domino, carly fiorina, dan mangru, election, joseph abruzzo, marco rubio, midterm, peter schiff, The Mangru Report
With the election results finally winding down, it’s time to look back at some of our favorite candidate interviews and how they fared in the 2010 elections.
Marco Rubio – Candidate for U.S. Senate – Florida (Won)
Carly Fiorina – Candidate for U.S. Senate – California (Lost)
Lt. Col. (Ret.) Allen West – Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives – Florida (Won)
Peter Schiff – Candidate for U.S. Senate – Connecticut (Lost in Primary)
Joseph Abruzzo – Candidate for Florida House of Representatives – (Won)
Rep. Carl Domino – Candidate for Florida Senate – (Lost in Primary)
Interview with Edward Gonzalez – Candidate for U.S. Congress November 3, 2010Posted by Admin in Dan Mangru, Interviews.
Tags: budget, crisis, dan mangru, Edward Gonzalez, health care, interview, marijuana, obama, pension, recession, reform, The Mangru Report
Update: Edward Gonzalez made a strong showing as a libertarian candidate with 7% in his district.
*** Edward Gonzalez is a candidate for U.S. Congress in California’s 16th District.
Tags: china, Congress, consumers, currency, dan mangru, goods, manipulator, manufacturing, price, quality, resolution, The Mangru Report, United States
While Congress passes a new resolution to label China as a currency manipulator, Dan Mangru evaluates whether this is just political posturing or real policy. China recently unpegged its currency (the yuan) from the U.S. dollar but has seen more pressure from the U.S. to allow it’s currency to appreciate so that U.S. manufactured goods would be cheaper to Chinese consumers.
During this Mangru Moment, Mangru also takes a hard look at whether the U.S. should fight it’s battles with China via the media, whether the U.S. should be focused on growing the Chinese market, and what’s ultimately best for America.
Tags: bust, crisis, fannie mae, franklin raines, Freddie Mac, gibbs, government, homes, mortgages, no money down, obama, recession, subprime
Just when you thought that finally the government had learned it’s lesson, you hear about stuff like this and remember why you have so little faith in Washington D.C.
Watch Dan Mangru from Episode 14 of The Mangru Report discuss the federal government giving away no money down loans again in the midst of the biggest subprime financial crisis in history and how our friends at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making it all happen.