Breaking News: Pulieri Calls Market Sell-Off & Gives Dow Forecast May 7, 2010Posted by Admin in Market Commentary.
Tags: analysis, anthony, commentary, correction, crash, dow, equities, euro, eurozone, finance, gold, greece, italy portugal, markets, NYSE, pulieri, stocks, United Bullion Group, VIX, wall street
Below is market commentary from Anthony Pulieri of Joseph Glenn Commodities (www.jgcommodities.com) and Expert Panelist for The Mangru Report:
The stock market has come too far way too fast as I discussed on The Mangru Report this past Saturday. The retail investor needs to get out and if you look at what happened this week, it is a fundamental break down in the market. I have been looking for heavy volume as confirmation and with almost 460 million shares trading on the Dow, this is it. Technically speaking a 15-20% correction to the downside in the stock market is exactly what this market needs and it could be much more aggressive. I see support at around 9800 on the Dow, which we last hit on February 5 of this year and which we touched briefly today. In addition, over the last several days we broke the trendline that we established off the March 6 lows of 2009 (see DOW chart below).
Most likely, I do think 9000 will be hit quickly on the Dow admist a global selloff. Fear and uncertainty have permeated the markets. The VIX (aka The Fear Index) has literally doubled in the last 3 days.
This is a dramatic move and it seems retail investors are getting shook out very fast. The Eurozone is falling to its knees right before our eyes. This is a major factor along with the wild currency moves we have seen daily. The situation in Greece, Portugal, Spain and now Italy is part of a deleveraging process that is spreading fast into global markets. This is just the beginning. I am looking for this trend to continue and the fall of the Eurozone as we know it is here. The sense of panic we saw in the American stock market has crushed confidence and I think it showed a lot of people just how vulnerable the current situation is. Without confidence in a system that is already damaged I will tell you to just sit on the sidelines and take your profits. The correction has started. Don’t get caught!
Now GOLD is a different story because it is the only true safe haven asset. The stock market rally, which you can see in the DOW chart I posted earlier was built off of relatively weak volume (the last time the DOW had significant volume was back in April of 2009. Gold on the other hand has had a strong rise built on strong volume, a classic trend confirmation (see chart below).
It is true currency as we have seen this week, and for the last 5000 years people forget it is the only asset that does not rely on other people’s ability to pay. It continues to hit new highs in all currencies and with the printing press running wild globally, inflation is inevitable. The general level of the price of goods will continue to rise and the purchasing power of your dollar will continue to erode.
Its not just companies going under. Now we have actual countries coming apart at the seams. Greece is the birth place of democracy. With all these issues going on, what we saw was the 1200/oz level in gold get breached with relative ease in the face of a strong dollar. Gold’s high will be broken very quickly and my target is 1500/oz by years end . Long term gold is poised for much higher moves 2500/oz at the minimum. Technically we have short term support at 1160 and at 1080 lies the all important 200 day moving average. The 1000 dollar level has a mountain of support and I fully expect we wont see for a long time. With the Central Banks being net buyers of gold and the geopolitical and economic instability Gold is your safe haven. There is just too many question marks. Gold has the support technically and fundamentally. You throw in record level investment flows globally it is a must in everyone’s portfolio!