Anthony Pulieri: The Bears Running Wild for a Decade in Stocks and the Bulls Charge Forward in Gold…. June 23, 2010Posted by Admin in Market Commentary.
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Exclusive Commentary By Anthony Pulieri
Chief Investment Adviser
Joseph Glenn Commodities
I look at the U. S. stock market and see nothing but the destruction of wealth over the last decade and it sickens me to continue to see an entire society all in and over committed into stocks. Are you kidding me?
We have just seen The Lost Decade. The U.S. economy has expanded at a healthy clip for most of the last 70 years, but by a wide range of measures, it stagnated in the first decade of the new millennium. Job growth was essentially zero, as modest job creation from 2003 to 2007 wasn’t enough to make up for two recessions in the decade. Rises in the nation’s economic output, as measured by gross domestic product, was weak. Household net worth, when adjusted for inflation, fell as stock prices stagnated. Home prices declined in the second half of the decade and consumer debt skyrocketed.
I continue to see nothing but absolute market volatility and pressure downward. Whether it was the dot.com bubble bursting, or the massive real estate mortgage foreclosure crisis, all the way to the 2008 market debacle and destruction of wealth, the last 10 years have been nothing but turmoil for the average American. When it comes to investing, the last 10 years have been nothing but a short term traders market. The buy and hold strategy that had succeeded for so long is no longer a recipe for success.
I had discussed that this market came way too far way too fast at the peak of 11200 on the Dow and the S&P move to 1200 was not justified. This was just a short term bear market rally and here we are about to break the important 1040 mark. If we see this break through a test of 950 could approach very quickly. I am still sticking with my belief of 9000 on the Dow and possibly even lower at 8400 in the short term. Technically speaking the market seems to be breaking down. It is having major trouble breaking through the almighty 200 day moving average. If it is able to do so we could see a short term bounce, but if not the market will experience an extreme sell off and it will happen at lightning speed.
The European contagion has been growing and will continue to spread at a steady pace. The entire continent of Europe is in major long term trouble and the Euro continues to get crushed. We have seen a dead cat bounce off the lows for the Euro but it is absolutely a flawed currency and the down trend will continue over the long term. I do not see how this can change in the short term and what this has done is create a lack of confidence globally throughout Europe and America. The stock market trades purely off of confidence and there is none out there. Can you blame anyone for not having confidence after all the years of credit expansion, easy money and free spending? What do you expect? We would be able continue to spend at a pace not even imaginable just 20 years back and succeed? Will the policies ever get reeled in? We have chosen to inflate our way out of it and the Federal Reserve is left with no answer except to print more dollars. The strategy to inflate our way out of the deep recession we are currently in will culminate with the ultimate demise of the U.S. Treasury market and the U.S. dollar. Large investment flows have been flooding into the U.S. dollar but we have seen that trend reverse this week. This rally is over and we will see the U.S. dollar get demolished in the midterm and long term. Rick Santelli, said it best, “it is the tallest midget in the room”.
I turn my focus and investors to Gold. This market is an absolute bull market and has been for 10 years now. I believe the talk of a bubble is absolutely false. If you look back to all of the bubbles that have popped what you see is extreme volatility when the top is hit. We have yet to see any volatility in gold and it has done nothing but built an impressive base technically for 10 years with higher highs and higher lows alongside heavy volume. A short term move to the downside is possible to 1170 but there aren’t any sellers on any level in gold. Whenever it dips 10-15 dollars we see more buying right away. So until we break the 5 month uptrend I am no way selling my gold. I am a long term investor though and always have been. If we are able to retest and break 1250 I believe 1320 will be hit very quickly. Ultimately 1500 will be broken through by year end. Over the long term, 12-24 month forecast, 2000 per oz gold will be met with ease. Central Banks globally have switched from being net sellers of gold to net buyers. This is a huge change historically and very bullish. The global production cannot keep up with demand. The South African Rand Refinery has seen an increase of 50% in coin demand last month alone alongside an 86 year low in production, yet one more example of the bullish nature of Gold.
I stand firm in my belief that Gold will continue to trend higher because of the lack of faith in fiat currencies. The Dollar has been going down for the last decade and has gone down by about 30% since its high. The euro is in a major down trend due to the European contagion spreading and has just begun. Gold is the currency of kings and has weathered every single economic storm known to man. It has survived every major war and will always be a store of value to protect your wealth. If you look back in history you will see that every paper currency in the history of mankind has ultimately devalued to nothing and gone to zero. Protect your wealth and buy Gold. The enormous web of uncertainty permeating throughout the world will continue to drive Gold higher and ultimately lead to tremendous gains in your portfolio.
Anthony Pulieri is the Chief Investment Adviser to Joseph Glenn Commodities. For more information please CLICK HERE NOW.